John Battelle has a first-rate essay today on whether Google is headed for a fall. He draws parallels between Microsoft’s top-dog status in 1997 and Google’s current awe-inspiring role as cultural arbiter, technorati exemplar and powerful gateway to the world’s information.
Google is coming close to a “worm turning” moment - a moment when the world realizes that the company is *too powerful* and its ambitions are *too great.* When such a genie arrives, it is very, very hard to put back in the bottle. The one all encompassing difference, of course, is that Google has real competition - Microsoft in 1997 did not - but regardless, the cultural vibe is striking in its similarity.
Battelle doesn’t draw any hard and fast conclusions that Google will without a doubt experience the same fate as Microsoft, but he does wonder whether the go-it-alone mentality that made Google so great will stand the test of time.
To me it’s not so much the go-it-alone mentality that threatens Google as much as it is the inherent and inescapable truth behind Lord Acton’s aphorism that power corrupts but absolutely power corrupts absolutely. It’s hard to see how the Googlers, whose average age falls well under 30, can maintain their original, relatively pure visions of innovation in the face of crushing adoration and fear, not to mention great sudden wealth.
Battelle describes a meeting with former Microsoft CTO Nathan Myhrvold in 1997 during which Myhrvold boasted and bragged about how Microsoft would own a slice of all ecommerce transactions on the web. That was a signal that Microsoft, also staffed by young, suddenly rich employees, was out-of-touch with the sustainability of its own power, and we all know that it was downhill from there.
If Google can escape the pitfalls of unbelievable success, then it might pull off an amazing trick by rising above basic human nature.
Cynthia Brumfield at 8:36 AM|Comments(0)
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