IP Democracy: Time Warner Cable: Shooting Out the Lights
Media giant Time Warner issued its Q1 06 earnings results this morning showing improved profitablity on flat revenues, with its cable division shining as the engine of growth. Time Warner’s overall revenues were almost flat at $10.46 billion (compared to $10.36 billion a year ago), but net income jumped to $1.46 billion, compared to $915 billion during the year-ago quarter due to growth in the highly profitable Time Warner Cable. AOL, on the other hand, was another story altogether.
“I think the guys are shooting the lights out,” CEO Dick Parsons said during Time Warner’s earnings call, referring to the very impressive performance of the cable division. During the quarter, Time Warner Cable added 82,000 basic subscribers, more basic subscribers than were added during all of 2005 and the biggest quarterly gain in this key measure in six years.
Every single metric (excluding the always-variable ad revenue) was up for Time Warner Cable, a testament, executives say, to the power of the triple-play bundle of voice, video and data services. “The obvious and correct conclusion to take awy from these results is that the triple-play bundle is working,” Parsons said.
Indeed, Time Warner added 346,000 net new residential high-speed customers during the quarter, more than triple the net new modem subscribers added during Q1 05, and nearly one-third more the number of net new high-speed customers added during Q4 05. At the end of the quarter, Time Warner served approximately 5.2 million high-speed customers.
Digital telephony growth hit a high-water mark during the quarter, with Time Warner Cable adding 270,000 net new VoIP customers, up about 78% over the net voice adds during the year-ago quarter and up about 10% over the growth levels in Q4 05. By the end of the quarter, Time Warner Cable counted 1.37 million voice customers, more than quadruple the total digital voice customers at the end of Q1 05.
Digital TV service also gained steamed during the quarter. Time Warner Cable added 241,000 net new digital customers, a run-rate 134% higher than a year-ago, and 21% higher than the net new digital adds for Q4 05. By quarter’s end, Time Warner Cable’s digital customer base reached 5.6 million, breaking the 50% penetration level for the first time.
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Time Warner Cable |
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(in mil. except %) |
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| Subscribers and Penetration | 1Q05 | 2Q05 | 3Q05 | 4Q05 | 1Q06 |
| Homes passed | 19.28 | 19.383 | 19.514 | 19.63 | 19.734 |
| Subscribers | 10.91 | 10.905 | 10.923 | 10.957 | 11.039 |
| Basic penetration | 57.0% | 56.0% | 56.0% | 56.0% | 56.0% |
| Year-to-year internal sub growth | -0.20% | 0.00% | 0.20% | 0.70% | 1.20% |
| Total Customer Relationships | 11.648 | 11.698 | 11.74 | 11.804 | 11.941 |
| Revenue Generating Units | 20.495 | 21.088 | 21.739 | 22.491 | 23.435 |
| Digital Video | 1Q05 | 2Q05 | 3Q05 | 4Q05 | 1Q06 |
| Digital video subs | 4.909 | 5.053 | 5.202 | 5.401 | 5.642 |
| Quarterly net adds | 0.103 | 0.144 | 0.149 | 0.199 | 0.241 |
| Digital subs % of basic subs | 45.0% | 46.0% | 48.0% | 49.0% | 51.0% |
| High Speed Data - Residential | 1Q05 | 2Q05 | 3Q05 | 4Q05 | 1Q06 |
| HSD subs | 4.122 | 4.323 | 4.557 | 4.822 | 5.168 |
| Quarterly net adds | 0.103 | 0.201 | 0.234 | 0.265 | 0.346 |
| HSD subs % of basic subs | 37.8% | 39.6% | 41.7% | 44.0% | 46.8% |
| HSD subs % of HP | 21.4% | 22.3% | 23.4% | 24.6% | 26.0% |
| High Speed Data - Commercial | 1Q05 | 2Q05 | 3Q05 | 4Q05 | 1Q06 |
| HSD Subs. | 0.182 | 0.193 | 0.203 | 0.211 | 0.216 |
| Quarterly net adds | 0.009 | 0.011 | 0.01 | 0.008 | 0.005 |
| Digital Telephone | 1Q05 | 2Q05 | 3Q05 | 4Q05 | 1Q06 |
| Digital Phone Subs. | 0.327 | 0.614 | 0.854 | 1.1 | 1.37 |
| Quarterly net adds | 0.152 | 0.242 | 0.24 | 0.246 | 0.27 |
| % of homes passed | 1.7% | 3.2% | 5.0% | 5.0% | 8.0% |
At the other end of the Time Warner spectrum stands AOL, which continues to rapidly lose customers and struggle to find a way toward stability. During the quarter, AOL lost 835,000 U.S. customers, making the former online giant the size it was during Q1 00. In other words, AOL has rolled back the clock six years in terms of its U.S. online subscriber reach.
| AOL U.S. Subscriber Counts | |||
| (in mil. except %) | |||
| # Subs. | Change | % Change | |
| 1Q 00 | 18,648 | 1,204 | na |
| 2Q 00 | 19,406 | 758 | 4% |
| 3Q 00 | 20,306 | 900 | 5% |
| 4Q 00 | 21,531 | 1,225 | 6% |
| 1Q 01 | 22,711 | 1,180 | 5% |
| 2Q 01 | 23,410 | 699 | 3% |
| 3Q 01 | 24,188 | 778 | 3% |
| 4Q 01 | 25,241 | 1,053 | 4% |
| 1Q 02 | 26,051 | 810 | 3% |
| 2Q 02 | 26,528 | 477 | 2% |
| 3Q 02 | 26,657 | 129 | 0% |
| 4Q 02 | 26,481 | -176 | -1% |
| 1Q 03 | 26,192 | -289 | -1% |
| 2Q 03 | 25,348 | -846 | -3% |
| 3Q 03 | 24,658 | -690 | -3% |
| 4Q 03 | 24,259 | -399 | -2% |
| 1Q 04 | 24,022 | -237 | -1% |
| 2Q 04 | 23,354 | -668 | -3% |
| 3Q 04 | 22,708 | -646 | -3% |
| 4Q 04 | 22,204 | -504 | -2% |
| 1Q 05 | 21,696 | -508 | -2% |
| 2Q 05 | 20,778 | -918 | -4% |
| 3Q 05 | 20,100 | -678 | -3% |
| 4Q 05 | 19,475 | -625 | -3% |
| 1Q06 | 18,640 | -835 | -4% |
Despite a 3% sequential rise in ad revenue, AOL’s overall revenues dropped 2% sequentially to $1.98 billion. During the earnings call, Time Warner executives tried to argue that growth for the online unit will pick up during the second-half of 2006 due to AOL’s stepped-up initiatives to convert customers to broadband subscriptions and greater emphasis on driving traffic to AOL’s portal.
Two other divisions of Time Warner, film and publishing, were relatively weak. The film division’s revenue dropped by nearly 8% to $2.78 billion due to the blockbuster hits such as Million Dollar Baby that dominated the year-ago quarter. Time Inc., the publishing division, stayed flat at around $1.1 billion due to, well, weaknesses in the publishing industry generally.
Time Warner’s networks, which include Turner Broadcasting, HBO and The WB Network, ticked up by 3% to $2.4 billion.
During the earnings call, Parsons announced that Time Warner is negotiating with media mogul John Malone’s Liberty Media to buy Liberty’s 50% stake in CourtTV network. Time Warner owns the remaining half. Parsons also said that the company is negotiating with Liberty to swap assets for Liberty’s 4% share of Time Warner.
Posted by Cynthia Brumfield on May 3, 2006 10:01 AM to IP Democracy