IP Democracy: Telecom Legislation and The Battle for Congress

Given that two committees in the Republican-controlled House appear to be at odds regarding net neutrality, and the possibility that a similar dynamic could unfold in the Senate, the news that the Christian Coalition has come out in support of net neutrality legislation takes on particular significance—especially so amidst the real possibility that Republicans could lose the House and possibly even the Senate in this year’s election.

While Republican telecom-focused committee chairs Barton and Stevens seem pretty well aligned with the preferred policy positions of incumbent network providers—particularly the RBOCs—their counterparts on the Judiciary committees appear to have a very different view, at least on net neutrality. This certainly seemed in evidence at recent hearings held on the House side.

While some of this may reflect Judiciary’s more anti-trust perspective and its lack of longstanding ties to the telecom industry, the coming elections may also be part of the equation. With its approval ratings down in the 30s with the President’s, the Republican-controlled Congress will probably need to rally all its core constituencies to retain control of both houses. Losing or even weakening support among the Christian Coalition and its allies (and the NRA, for that matter) could strike a crippling blow to Republican prospects for retaining control of Congress. I’ve heard Republican commentators like David Brooks talk about growing panic among DC Republicans. In that environment, I’d think that avoiding any loss of support among fundamentalist Christians and gun owners would be seen as vital.

If the Democrats gain control of the House, the legislative terrain seems likely to change dramatically, with John Dingell presumably taking over Barton’s chairmanship, and Ed Markey, a strong proponent of net neutrality rules, becoming chair of the telecom and Internet subcommittee. Then there’s also the prospect that a Democratic-controlled House would focus much of its resources on hearings to investigate the Bush Administration on a range of fronts, with both political parties spending most of their time and energy focused on non-telecom issues and the 2008 election.

With this scenario appearing reasonably likely, I’d think the RBOCs will continue pushing hard for passage of a statewide franchising bill this session. Expediting their video entry would be a significant competitive plus for them and, without the politically complicating presence of the net neutrality issue, their position on the franchising issue strikes me as more appealing to voters than the opposing views offered by cable operators. But moving forward with legislation that does not satisfy net-neutrality supporters may prove increasingly unacceptable to some key Republicans concerned about the election and the expanding support for net neutrality provisions among some of their core constituencies.

Given how much is at stake for congressional Republicans as a group, and how contentious the net neutrality issue has become, if I had to bet, I’d predict that no telecom legislation will pass in this session of Congress.

There’s that old saying, “There are two things you don’t want to see being made—sausage and legislation.” In this election year, the process seems likely to be even messier and more difficult than usual.

Posted by Mitch Shapiro on May 18, 2006 3:04 PM to IP Democracy