IP Democracy: Pogue on iPhone Rumors: Don't Hold Your Breath

David Pogue has this item today that puts a little perspective around the recurrent hot rumor that Apple is about to come out with an iPhone. When asked when Apple will come out with a cell phone, Pogue answers: “Probably never.”

Part of his dismal assessment stems from the veto power that telcos have over phone design. Apple, he claims (and he’s probably right) would never give up its design prerogative to anybody.

I cannot imagine Apple giving veto power to ANYONE over its software design. It just ain’t gonna happen.

But, another thing fueling his deep skepticism is the fact that iPhone rumors have periodically run rampant since 2004. He points to what he calls a “Wonderful Museum of Bogus Apple Phone Rumors” published by the Tao of Mac filled with “photos” and “reports.”

For what it’s worth, I think Apple has designed an iPhone, the plans and prototypes for which are resident somewhere deep in Apple’s vaults. That’s what fueling all the rumors.

But, it’s one thing to design really cool computer and media products and it’s another thing to actually become a communications provider (far less cool, really), along the lines of Amp’d, for example, which is probably what Apple would have to do to sell its iPhone.

Because Pogue is right — it’s not likely that wireless carriers will bend to Apple’s design will and it’s a sure bet that Apple won’t concede to any carrier demands for modification. So Apple would have to become an MVNO, or mobile virtual network operator, just like Amp’d, leasing capacity from the existing carriers, yet another aspect of the whole thing that is probably too humbling for Apple.

Posted by Cynthia Brumfield on September 27, 2006 2:35 PM to IP Democracy