IPD contributor Gary Arlen cast his knowing eye around CES last week and offers the following all-you-need-to-know recap of the show’s events, Arlen-style.
If ever there were a “can’t-see-the-forest-for-the-trees” environment, it is the Consumer Electronics Show. Amidst the avalanche of digital product hype — which now ranges from mega-screen TV monitors to thumb-sized video receivers, not to mention Internet-powered doorbells and butt-rumbling automotive sound systems — it’s hard to sort out what’s truly significant.
Even a week after the gargantuan 2007 show ended, the proliferation of products and promises blurs together. I’ve often thought that the best CES coverage should come six to 10 months after the event to see which of the products actually reach market and appeal to real consumers. Is this the year we should believe that Hewlett-Packard’s home media server will jump off the shelves, unlike the three previous annual promises? Or will Sirius Radio’s backseat video service (first shown in 2005) become a “winner” now that it has some MTV and Nickelodeon content? Is Akimbo’s IPTV service more viable, now that it can be accessed through Yahoo! video or via ScanDisk’s USBTV thumb-drive that moves video from the PC to the TV set?
Of course, seasoned cynicism is tempered with sheer awe at the proliferation and progress on display. Last year’s much-hyped SED (Surface-conduction Electron-emitter Display) monitors from Toshiba and Canon, which were supposed to be the next great flat-panel technology, were completely absent last week. But Sony brought forth a 27-inch prototype Organic Light Emitting Diode monitor, far larger than the handheld-device OLED screens (less than five inches) that Kodak and Sanyo demonstrated two years ago.
Against that context of innovation uncertainty, it’s foolhardy to handicap product success. Moreover, the increasing significance of “outside” factors was deliberately in the face of the hardware makers and marketers who are at CES’s core. Hollywood moguls, such as Disney’s Bob Iger and CBS’s Leslie Moonves were making nice in their keynote remarks, with great visions of converging, cross-platform delivery. But their very presence was a reminder that they control much of the content that will make or break many of the devices (economically, if not tangibly).
And regulatory issues were always looming as the Consumer Electronics Association (which runs CES) continued to showcase policy makers on copy protection, access (including network neutrality), security and more. Although the Congressional turnout (merely three Republican members of the House of Representatives) was sparse compared to the dozens in previous years, Washington was heard from in many quarters.
FCC Chairman Kevin Martin reiterated his dismay with the harsh Network Neutrality limits that the FCC put onto the AT&T/BellSouth merger. He cited the “non-discrimination” wording in the decision and convolutedly cautioned that, “‘not non-discriminatory’ has come to mean something different than the FCC’s intent.”
Martin also said that the FCC “shouldn’t get into” the issues of muni-broadband, calling such government-owned networks “mostly a local decision.” But he acknowledged that the FCC might become involved in some situations, stopping short of specifying the situations that will attract federal attention.
The Chairman’s widely reported pronouncement that Comcast and other large cable companies will not be granted blanket waivers to postpone distribution of CableCARD downloadable security was greeted with predictable glee by consumer electronics makers.
“The Commission has to find a way [so that] by Christmas 2008 consumers are able to take advantage of what we’re seeing on the floor,” he said, referring to the digital-ready TV monitors that were on display in the CES exhibit halls.
Immediately, the cable TV spinmeisters in the conference room complained about the cost to the cable industry and consumers of that decision.
Martin also reiterated his views about a la carte TV programming, calling it “problematic” that customers have to buy bundles of channels. He cited his year-old FCC report favoring unbundling — again sending the cable executives seething.
Despite several questions about rumored mergers in the satellite radio (XM + Sirius) and satellite TV (DirecTV + EchoStar), Martin steadfastly deferred comment until such deals are actually presented to the FCC. He acknowledged that “obviously telco entry into TV changes the marketplace dramatically,” thus suggesting that the DBS deal might receive a favorable hearing.
Martin also opined on the “white spaces” issue that if of such concern to broadcasters. As TV channels are shuffled during the DTV transition, and as unused local spectrum is allotted to unlicensed devices, broadcasters fear that these new gizmos will emit signals that impede local TV reception.
“We can’t do it in a way that will interfere with broadcasters while they’re in the midst of transition,” Martin said. Again, he stopped short of describing the FCC’s steps toward field testing or other actions to avoid interference.
CEA President Gary Shapiro, who interviewed Martin on stage for an hour, took audience questions in writing — and the first query (which happened to be one of the questions I sent up) asked about Martin’s own personal favorite consumer electronics device.
The chairman immediately said it was his cell phone, citing its value in keeping in touch with his family and the progress of his 13-month old child.
Martin’s focus on verbal access suggests that he is not hustling to sign up for the multitude of mobile content services that were arrayed throughout Las Vegas. Motorola Chairman Ed Zander, in his keynote session, focused on the entertainment options available via mobile devices.
And Verizon Wireless notched up its VCast promotion, unveiling a relationship with Qualcomm’s offshoot MediaFLO to carry specially packaged network TV programming (from CBS, NBC, MTV Networks and others) to handsets. The Verizon pitch also integrated the expansion of the company’s FiOS fiber-to-the-home video service, which is rolling out in selected markets. Verizon executives stressed the consumer value in getting voice, video, data and wireless entertainment and communications service from a single supplier.
When I asked them about what will happen in the vast regions of the U.S. where Verizon is not the legacy incumbent wireline carrier (and hence, the bundle will not be easily available), their only reply was that they’re looking at ways to handle it. When I pressed, asking if they were making deals with AT&T or Qwest in their regions (unlikely alliances), Verizon’s executives benignly smiled and said they couldn’t talk about details yet.
Their reluctance to predict their own business deals reinforced a constant concern I faced throughout CES. There are so many good ideas and so many, many choices for consumers. Yet there is so much conflicting information and so little understanding about what these gizmos and policies will do.
At a session (which I moderated) about the Digital TV transition, the questions from the audience during the Q&A segment plus the individual queries after the formal program were stark reminders about consumer confusion. If the very smart industry executives and managers in the room did not understand the implications of the analog TV cut-off, how will tens of millions of merely mortal consumers comprehend that most fundamental of changes to their TV reception and the dramatic change looming.
Separately, as I watched the incredible big screen TV images (including Sharp’s new 108-inch LCD monitor) and tiny pictures on portable media players (including mobile phones), I wondered what the Hollywood contingent at CES was pondering. Should they be producing separate versions of their movies for the big home screen and the small handheld screen? What are the costs — and more significantly, how soon will the markets grow to justify customized productions for each platform?
And all of this doesn’t include the continuing march of “alternative” content suppliers, such as MediaZone (a “social TV” service) or the revamped Zodiac Interactive (formerly Zodiac Games, a cable set-top box gaming supplier), into the CES arena.
So many choices. So many things to remember. Or to forget.
Such as that Internet door bell (you can download variable ring chimes via an IP connection). It was an “Innovation” award winner, although who knows why anyone will buy the gizmo?
We’ll check it out next year.
Gary Arlen at 5:31 PM|Comments(0)
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