Two bits of news today underscore the potential permanent loss that Hollywood might experience as a result of the protracted writers' strike. First, Nielsen Online reports that traffic to some online video sites has doubled since the strike began at the end of October and suggests that the strike could be a factor.
On top of this, Pew Internet and American Life Project has a study that says that nearly half of Internet users visit video sharing sites and that visits to these sites have doubled in the past year. These two sets of findings are prompting some folks to say that the big shift to online video has arrived, fueled by the writers strike.
I think that's right and the negotiators on both sides of the strike should take serious heed. Some unknown but undoubtedly large percentage of viewers who defect to the Internet will be lost to the TV set forever once the strike is over (which, btw, might not be for months and months, based on a conversation I had the other day with entertainment attorney-pundit-blogger Jonathan Handel. Handel thinks things won't get resolved by June, when the Screen Actors Guild is purportedly slated to go on strike. After that, it could take months before a cross-guild compromise is struck.)
But a more serious problem for Hollywood is what I suspect is an undocumented rise in traffic to all those sites out there that host pirated content. Neither Nielsen nor Pew directly factored in these abundant sources of full-length TV shows and films into their studies.
Not to name names, but lately a lot of people I know have "discovered" unbelievable sites that offer virtually unlimited menus of unedited TV shows and films, and the quality of transmission is superb. These sites are like Hulu on massive doses of steroids, only global and with practically every TV show and film made.
At first I caught one person watching British films and TV shows on a site emanating from Japan. Then, someone else mentioned to me that (s)he watches this site from somewhere in Asia (Thailand? Vietnam?) that is a cornucopia of amazing vastness. It seems to offer every TV show and film ever made, in every language.
If there is nothing to watch but repeats on regular old TV, and no real reason to visit the local multiplex theater, I think these clearly illegal sites are going to get the boost of their lives. Because they are amazing.
So, are the producers and writers just hastening the death of Hollywood with their intrasigent positions? Probably. As much as Hollywood wants to stamp out piracy, its inability to forge a pact with the writers is just pushing people into the arms of the pirates. As for the writers, well, they may be holding out for bigger residuals in the online world, but a bigger percentage of nothing is nothing.
Cynthia Brumfield at 12:48 PM|Comments(1)
It looks like new shows are coming out now, I'm seeing new ones like Friday Night Lights and the late night talk shows coming out on hulu via this facebook app (keeps my updated): http://www.facebook.com/apps/application.php?id=6443058041
Posted by: Jeff at January 11, 2008 9:44 AM
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